It’s Just The Facts: July 2019

  1. GOING, GOING, GONE – 7,037 American retail stores have closed YTD through 6/30/19, already exceeding the 5,864 closures that occurred during all of calendar year 2018. This year’s store closures are on pace to exceed the all-time record of 8,139 from 2017 (source: Coresight Research).
  2. LONGEST IN HISTORY – The US economic expansion began its 11th year (i.e., 121st month) a week ago today on 7/01/19, making it the longest-running expansion in our nation’s history based upon government data that has been maintained since 1854 or for 165 years (source: National Bureau of Economic Research).
  3. IMPACT OF GLOBAL TRADE – Exports make up 12% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States, 19% of the GDP of China, and 50% of the GDP of Germany. GDP is the annual market value of all goods and services produced domestically by a country (source: Economic Cycle Research Institute).
  4. HOME DEBT – 65% of the debt of Americans as of 3/31/19 is mortgage debt, i.e., $10.4 trillion of mortgages out of $16.1 trillion of total household debt (source: Federal Reserve).
  5. THE VERY RICHEST – The top 1% of wage earners in the US reported at least $480,804 of pre-tax income in 2016 and own an estimated 29% of the total wealth in the country (source: Survey of Consumer Finances).
  6. NOT MY BEST DECISION – 57% of Millennials burdened with student debt resulting from their college education regret taking out as many loans as they did. Millennials were born between 1981-97 and are ages 22-38 in 2019 (source: Citizens Bank).
  7. A LOCK – As of last Friday (7/19/19), the Fed funds future market was priced to reflect a 100% chance that the Fed will reduce short-term interest rates following its 2-day meeting on July 30-31 (source: CME Group).
  8. WORLD’S BIGGEST – As of 3/31/19, the US economy was $21 trillion in size. As of 3/31/69, i.e., 50 years ago, the US economy was $1 trillion in size (source: Commerce Department).
  9. NO COMMUTE NECESSARY – 24% of American workers did some of their work or all their work from home in 2018 (source: Department of Labor).
  10. MORE THAN A DECADE – If the Fed does cut short-term interest rates as expected on Wednesday 7/31/19, it will be the Fed’s first rate cut since 12/16/08, a span of 3,879 days. The S&P 500 closed at 913 on 12/16/08. The S&P 500 closed at 3026 last Friday 7/26/19 (source: Federal Reserve).
  11. BANK TAKEOVER – Lenders foreclosed on 57,499 homes in the first 5 months of 2019, down 43% from 100,958 foreclosures in the first 5 months of 2018 (source: Attom Data Solutions).
  12. REAL ESTATE SHIFT – Over the 12 years from 6/30/04 to 6/30/16, the number of “renter” households in the United States increased by +11.2 million to 43.9 million, while the number of “owner” households increased by just +1.0 million to 74.4 million. However, over the last 3 years from 6/30/16 to 6/30/19, the number of “renter” households in the United States was flat, remaining at 43.9 million, while the number of “owner” households increased by +4.1 million to 78.5 million (source: Census Bureau).
  13. HOME PRICE – The median sales price of existing homes sold in the USA in June 2019 was $285,700, a record price. However, the median sales price of existing homes sold in July 2006 ($230,200) is equal to $289,750 in today’s dollars, a record price on an inflation-adjusted basis (source: National Association of Realtors).

Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide